Without radical changes to the way mobile communication is provided, the demand for data transmission will rapidly overtake the network’s capacity. This isn’t doomsday scenario stuff – it’s simple math.
Each operator is allocated a 5-megahertz chucks of the electromagnetic spectrum, which the operator uses at each of its transmitters. The chunks of spectrum carry data either to or from the transmitter. Many operators are given just two 5 MHz chunks – though some may have as many as five pairs. Current 3G technologies can send roughly 1 bit of data – a one or a zero – per second over each 1 Hz of spectrum that the operator owns. That means a cell tower using one pair of 5 MHz chunks of spectrum can transmit just 5 megabytes of data per second. When you factor thatApple has sold 50 million iPhones and Android is growing at a phenomenal rate, it doesn’t take long overcrowd the system. If the growth of smartphone use continues at current pace, mobile traffic will more than double every year for the next four years, which means that, assuming best-case scenario in which operators have 50 MHz of spectrum allocated to them, demand will exceed capacity in 2013. If you live in New York or San Francisco, chances are you’ve already started to experience some of this issue.
Associate Creative Director at bloomfield knoble
