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If everything old is new again, then when does stuff new become old? I was looking at global growth rates for emerging technologies, but some of the elements included in the calculations didn’t seem (to me) to be emerging anymore.
According to International Data Corporation, worldwide IT spending will increase 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2011. This increase will likely be in relation to mobile computing, cloud services and social networking. Spending surges in these areas should frame a new market and open up a plethora of industry-specific solutions. “In 2011, we expect to see these transformative technologies make the critical transition from early adopter status to early mainstream adoption,” said Frank Gens, IDC senior vice president and chief analyst.
“As a result, we’ll see the IT industry revolving more and more around the build-out and adoption of this next dominant platform, characterized by mobility, cloud-based application and service delivery, and value-generating overlays of social business and pervasive analytics,” Gens said.
Part of the problem is that I am an industry insider – so these things aren’t really new to me, but it does make me think that no matter what the industry, the world is still driven by consumer awareness (saturation). Something may have 85% adoption among a certain group, but if the population size of that group is small – it’s still small overall. In technology, however, it can’t just be about adoption – it has to be about awareness as well.
It seems to break down into this – is emerging technology about awareness or adoption? Then, what % of what defined population has to (be aware or adopt) before the emerging technology is mainstream?
Associate Creative Director at bloomfield knoble